The Weakening Dollar
In recent years, the US dollar’s position as the world’s primary reserve currency and the bedrock of international transactions is facing unprecedented scrutiny and challenges. The dollar, which historically tended to strengthen during periods of economic or geopolitical conflict, has recently exhibited unusual behavior, signaling that a subtle shift might be underway in the international monetary system. One signal of this change comes from the actions of international rating agencies. Following Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA in 2011, Moody’s recently lowered the US government’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. This means the United States has now lost its top credit rating from all three major international credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch). The downgrades reflect concerns about the US’s accumulating debt burden, fiscal uncertainty, and political polarization, factors that could weaken the US’s future fiscal strength and policy stability, thereby impacting investor confidence in US Treasury bonds. ...